Google News briefly featured prediction markets
Polymarket betting markets appeared in Google News search results for a short time before being removed. The prediction platform’s links showed up alongside established news publishers like Reuters and The Guardian when users searched for event-related queries.
A Google spokesperson told The Verge that this was an error. “This site briefly appeared in Google News in error, and it is no longer surfacing in News,” said spokesperson Ned Adriance. The company didn’t provide details about how long the markets were visible or what caused the technical issue.
Search results showed prediction markets
Before the removal, searches for specific events would return Polymarket predictions directly beneath mainstream news coverage. One example involved searches about ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Users would see both traditional news reporting and Polymarket’s betting markets on vessel passage outcomes.
By Sunday, though, the same searches no longer showed any Polymarket results. The brief appearance suggests Google’s algorithms might have temporarily categorized the prediction platform as a news source, which seems like an oversight given its nature.
Partnerships with tech platforms continue
Interestingly, Google already has a partnership with Polymarket and its rival Kalshi to integrate their data into Google Finance. That’s a separate arrangement from Google News, of course. The finance integration makes sense—prediction market data can be useful for understanding market sentiment.
Other tech platforms have also partnered with Polymarket recently. Elon Musk’s X named Polymarket as its official prediction market partner back in June, aiming to integrate the service into the social media platform. MetaMask announced in October that it would integrate Polymarket as part of expanding beyond just being a crypto wallet.
World App, the digital wallet from Sam Altman’s World project, added the Polymarket app around the same time. These integrations suggest prediction markets are gaining traction as a crypto use case, even if they’re not exactly traditional news sources.
Most traders don’t profit consistently
While prediction markets attract attention, data shows most participants struggle to make consistent profits. According to crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov, only about 1% of Polymarket traders have crossed $5,000 in profits in a single month. Even fewer—just 0.015%—maintained that level for four consecutive months.
The numbers get smaller when looking at larger profits. Only 0.033% of wallets have exceeded $100,000 in total profits, and some of these likely belong to professional traders rather than regular users.
I think this data is important context. Prediction markets might be interesting for gauging collective wisdom about future events, but they’re not exactly get-rich-quick schemes for most participants. The Google News incident, while brief, highlights how these platforms occupy a gray area between information sources and betting markets.
Perhaps the temporary appearance reflects broader confusion about how to categorize prediction platforms. They provide information about what people think will happen, but they’re fundamentally different from traditional journalism that reports on what has happened or is happening.
