Miners face tougher economics ahead of 2028 halving
Bitcoin miners are looking at the 2028 halving with what feels like less breathing room than they had in 2024. The numbers tell part of the story—when rewards drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block, miners will be getting half the new coins while dealing with higher input costs across the board.
But it’s not just about the halving itself. Energy markets have become more volatile after geopolitical events shook things up. Capital seems more selective now, and regulators are moving from vague guidance to actual rules in places like the US and Europe. All this is pushing miners to act less like pure Bitcoin operations and more like energy companies.
Balance sheets show the strain
You can see the shift happening already. Several major miners have been selling Bitcoin from their treasuries to reduce debt and improve their financial positions. MARA Holdings sold over 15,000 Bitcoin in March, Riot Platforms moved more than 3,700 BTC in the first quarter, and others have followed similar paths.
Juliet Ye from Cango put it plainly: “There is less room in the middle now.” She thinks operators with scale and diversification will manage okay, but those without those advantages might find the next halving really difficult.
The efficiency gap between older and newer mining hardware is widening too. That’s forcing tough decisions about fleet upgrades. Miners are also shifting toward longer-term energy contracts across multiple regions instead of just chasing the cheapest short-term rates.
Business models are evolving
Mark Zalan from GoMining mentioned something interesting—capital discipline matters more now than just maximizing hashrate. New mining deployments have to clear higher return thresholds to make sense.
The pure block reward business is getting thinner, according to several industry voices. Stronger operators are looking more like power and data center businesses, earning additional revenue through things like grid services, curtailment programs, and even heat reuse.
Cango is building toward that model already. Their thinking is that facilities that will matter in five years are the ones that can do more than just mine Bitcoin. They’re positioning sites to toggle between AI workloads and hashpower, using mining to fill capacity while keeping options open.
Regulation becoming part of the investment case
Here’s something that surprised me a bit—regulation, which miners used to view mainly as a problem, is increasingly becoming part of the investment story. More specific rules on custody and banking access in the US, along with frameworks like MiCA in Europe and new financial products in Hong Kong, are creating clearer paths for institutional capital.
Zalan thinks capital moves faster when those rules are clear and usable. He doesn’t believe the market has fully priced in the next halving yet, arguing that scarcity will meet a much stronger Bitcoin ecosystem by 2028.
Investors seem to be re-rating miners already. Those locking in high-performance compute contracts are trading at more than double the revenue multiple of pure-play miners, according to Ye.
If the 2024 cycle rewarded miners who rode Bitcoin’s price strength, the run into 2028 might favor operators who can manage debt carefully, lock in power agreements, and build infrastructure that earns beyond just block subsidies. It’s a different kind of challenge, and the miners who adapt might look quite different from today’s operations.
