Luxor estimates about 235 exahashes per second of specialized Bitcoin mining capacity is idle, close to a fifth of the possible ASIC fleet. Its Sept. 8 report groups the machines as uneconomic, deliberately curtailed, in transit, or under maintenance. A hashrate rebound does not automatically mean financial distress is easing.
August revenue gave some miners relief
August was better for mining revenue. Luxor data shows dollar hashprice rose 24.4%, from $31.63 to $39.33 per petahash per second per day. Bitcoin’s price climbed 24.5%, from $62,889 to $78,312. Higher prices raise the dollar value of rewards miners compete for.
The improvement helped less efficient machines. Luxor’s 25 to 38 joules per terahash tier made about $45 per megawatt-hour on average. That was below its estimated network-average electricity cost of $48. Actual profit still depends on power contracts, financing, staffing, and other costs.
What the missing 235 EH/s measures
Luxor compares roughly 1,150 EH/s of total net ASIC capacity with about 915 EH/s of activity implied by August’s average difficulty. The 235 EH/s gap shows how much capacity may be sidelined. But Luxor does not quantify each category. The amount that could restart at a given hash price is uncertain.
An uneconomic machine needs better revenue, lower costs, or both. A machine in transit or under maintenance needs to work again. Curtailed equipment may already work, yet its owner may earn more by switching it off. A decline in estimated computing activity can come from financial pressure or from an operator responding to electricity-market incentives.
Bitcoin’s exact hashing power is unknown. It is estimated from difficulty and block discovery speed. Daily readings move around because block discovery is random. A seven-day average helps, but it cannot separate a distressed miner from one avoiding high power prices.
Texas and the restart trap
Texas grid operator ERCOT’s four coincident peaks cover June through September. Luxor says Texas miners cut activity in summer to avoid transmission charges. For exposed operators, running a machine can cost more than the electricity it uses at that moment. September ends that seasonal window, perhaps allowing some curtailed capacity to return. Power-price risk and operating costs still decide whether a marginal machine runs.
Restarts can reduce the reward for restarting. Bitcoin retargets difficulty every 2,016 blocks. If more computing power makes blocks arrive faster, difficulty can rise. At higher difficulty, the same machine earns less expected Bitcoin revenue per unit of computing power. Luxor noted October difficulty rose each year from 2022 through 2025, averaging about 10% across the month.
AI and high-performance computing commitments add another constraint. CryptoSlate’s Sept. 2 analysis said those contracts can weaken mining’s response to better Bitcoin economics.
The next evidence will be sustained changes in smoothed hashrate, later difficulty adjustments, and operator disclosures about curtailment and restarts.
