Election results shift the debate
CoinShares says local votes against new data centers could make existing Bitcoin mining sites more valuable. Benoît Pellevoizin, managing director of CoinShares France, told Crypto Briefing that opposition to AI data centers is already stretching approval timelines. That leaves miners with power contracts and grid connections in a different position, perhaps a stronger one.
Voters backed restrictions in 44 of 45 completed local referendums during the midterm elections, according to the Associated Press. An NBC News exit poll found 56% of voters said AI and data centers were a crucial or major factor in their congressional vote. Concerns about electricity prices, water use and Big Tech influence seem to drive much of the pushback.
Grid connections gain value
CoinShares’ second quarter mining report says grid connection delays now exceed five years for many projects. In the PJM region, facilities entering service took more than seven years on average. Pellevoizin said that makes existing connections more valuable because new projects face longer waits and more regulatory uncertainty.
The valuation gap is wide. Fully leased AI data centers have been valued at about $27 million per megawatt in recent transactions, the report estimated. Some publicly traded miners with energized but unleased capacity were valued at less than $3 million per megawatt. Converting mining infrastructure for AI computing can cost $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, so secured tenants and financing are essential, he said.
Investors separate contracts from plans
Investors are drawing a clearer line between miners with signed AI hosting deals and those with future plans. CoinShares found miners with contracted AI or high-performance computing capacity traded at an average of 12.9 times forward sales. Miners without contracts traded at 3.7 times.
That distinction showed up after the midterms. Cipher Digital fell about 20% last Wednesday, Hut 8 dropped around 23% and TeraWulf lost less than 7%, according to market data reported by Unchained. Riot Platforms gained around 10% after announcing a $28 billion, 15-year AI data center lease covering 910 megawatts in Texas.
Texas and financing remain key risks
Texas is a major question. Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has proposed pausing new data center approvals until lawmakers add protections for electricity consumers and local communities. Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs estimates states facing possible restrictions account for about 45% of planned US data center capacity, with Texas representing about a quarter. Bernstein cut price targets on seven Bitcoin mining companies by roughly 35% to 54% after the election.
Pellevoizin said the market is watching how fast miners convert contracted capacity into revenue. CoinShares identified more than $100 billion in disclosed AI and high-performance computing backlog across covered mining companies, against about $1.1 billion in annualized revenue. Of more than 4 gigawatts of contracted capacity, only around 550 megawatts were generating billable revenue at the time of the report. Core Scientific had about 437 megawatts billing by mid July, while rental payments at Cipher’s Black Pearl facility began in August.
