Prediction markets are emerging as one of the most active onchain applications, with retail users driving most activity even as broader digital asset markets stay quiet. A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket shows monthly trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March, and over 80% of users are retail, meaning they trade less than $10,000. These figures align with Dune Analytics data, which recorded $23.7 billion in March volume, up from just $1.9 billion a year earlier.
The report highlights a shift in how prediction markets are used. Instead of focusing on one-off, high-profile events, users are returning more often and engaging across multiple categories. Average active days per user nearly quadrupled from 2.5 to 9.9 in the first quarter, pointing to deeper and more consistent participation.
Sports leads the pack
Sports emerged as the largest segment, generating $10.1 billion in trading volume during the quarter. This growth was driven by a steady stream of global sporting events. Political markets also saw significant activity, totaling $5 billion over the same period. The findings suggest prediction markets are evolving beyond episodic betting into a more continuous system for tracking real-world developments. Crypto wallets, I think, are becoming key access points for users.
Polymarket operates on Polygon, allowing users to place onchain bets on real-world outcomes without intermediaries. In contrast, platforms like Kalshi run centralized marketplaces. Both have seen strong momentum since the 2024 US presidential election.
Growth projections and regulatory shifts
Industry projections cited in the report suggest prediction market volumes could reach $240 billion annually this year, with longer-term forecasts pointing toward the trillion-dollar mark. That trajectory no longer seems far-fetched. Early movers like Polymarket and Kalshi are reportedly raising substantial capital at valuations exceeding $20 billion.
For Polymarket, evolving regulatory dynamics, particularly growing acceptance from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have enabled more proactive steps around market integrity and transparency. The platform recently updated its governance framework to address risks related to insider trading and market manipulation. Sports, crypto, and politics remain high-volume event categories on Polymarket.
